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Episode 473: Never Stop Asking Questions
Date June 18, 2014 Summary Ben and Sam answer listener email questions about players who take pitches, catcher defense, spotting terrible teams a run, tool grades, and more. Topics * Benefits of All-Star selection * Value of long at-bats * Hit by pitches and OBP * Catcher defense * Best players to not make an All-Star team * Assigning tool grades * Spotting bad teams 1 run Intro Wilco, "Box Full of Letters" Banter * Episode 472 follow-up: Several players, including Addison Russell, publicized that they are quitting chewing tobacco after Tony Gwynn's death. * Episode 472 follow-up: What would Tony Gwynn hit in the shift era? * ESPN Home Run Tracker reported that Giancarlo Stanton's recent opposite field HR reached a maximum height of 48 feet. * Mike Trout has significantly lowered his strikeout rate in recent weeks. * Sam reports that he recently heard Ryan Braun nicknamed as R-Fraud. Email Questions * Mark: "Teams expend a huge amount of effort getting their players into the All-Star Game. When successful, does this really benefit the team in any way? Can you tell us about what the impact of playing in the All-Star Game has on the player's performance for the remainder of the season?" skims the rest of the question about regression of All-Stars. * Alex: "Would you include a hitter in your lineup who always makes an out but also always sees 15 pitches per at-bat? He is a league average fielder at any position you want but not a pitcher. You cannot pinch hit for him until the 8th inning or later. If the answer is yes, where would you want him to bat? If the answer is no, how many pitches would he have to see as a minimum for you to consider it?" * Steven: "I am new to thinking about baseball with a sabermetric mindset. I played college and semi-pro ball for several years and one thing already bothered me about the OBP calculation. Hit by pitches are figured into the calculation and although I understand for a true on base average this variable is needed, I do not feel it is appropriate to include this in OBP as a way to evaluate a player. From my experience the batter has little control over hit by pitches. I realize that some guys, more so in college than in the pros, crowd the plate or take one for the team, but this seems less likely to happen the further along players advance in the game. I have read that a players hit by pitches actually do stay somewhat consistent from year to year, but it seems to me that to more accurately evaluate a prospect management might want to pull out these hit by pitches when using OBP to choose a player. Please tell me if I am totally off on this." * Steve: "Which takes better stuff from a pitcher: a called strike or a swinging strike? Can a catcher influence a batter's swing through something like body or glove position?" * Eric: "On Tuesday Ben wrote about Glen Perkins' criticism of Josmil Pinto's defense and pitch framing. In the article Perkins also mentions that Pinto has a big league bat. If a catcher was only good at hitting or defense/framing, what stats would you use to determine what his positive impact? Was it worth what he did in other areas? Is there an offensive or defense baseline that can help determine when a catcher's liability in one area is too detrimental to keep him in the lineup?" * Stevie: "If creating a baseball were akin to creating a character in an RPG, and you had skill points to spend, how would you spend 300 points on the five tools on the 20-80 scouting scale? Would you do a 60 in each tool? 80 power, 80 contact and below average speed? Could a 250 point player make the majors? What would his skill breakdown have to be to make it?" * Eric: "How many games would the worst team in baseball, say the 2013 Astros, win if they started every game up 1-0?" Play Index * Sam looks up the best seasons by a player who never made an All-Star team. * In 1995 John Valentin did not make the All-Star team. He finished the season with 8.3 WAR. * In 2013 Josh Donaldson did not make the All-Star team and finished with 7.7 WAR. * Nick Markakis also came up on the search, and Sam notices he has also never received MVP votes. * Mark Ellis is the player with the highest career WAR (33.7) to never make an All-Star team or receive MVP votes. Notes * Sam wonders if any managers rig their rotation so that their ace pitches the last day before the All-Star break, making him ineligible to pitch in the All-Star game, and using the break to get him ready to pitch sooner once the seasons resumes. * After hearing the story of how Alex met his wife over baseball, Ben wonders when the first "Effectively Wild marriage" will be. * In Episode 449 a similar question was asked about how many pitches a leadoff hitter would need to see (in an at-bat ending in an out) in order to equal the value of a run. * Most at-bats end in an out anyway, so Sam and Ben initially decide to take the player. They guess that a shortstop or catcher batting .000/.000/000 would be worth −4 to −7 WAR, which they realize is a lot to give up. The batter would cost around 22 extra pitches to the starter, and tiring the bullpen isn't worth much. They reconsider and decline the player. "This guy would be the most boring baseball player," says Ben. "I'm glad this guy doesn't exist." * Ben thinks the best player with 300 points would be 80 contact/power/field with 30 arm/speed. * Sam says he would definitely give a player 80 power & hit tools. He thinks that 300 points is too high and sets it at 250. * Sam, on discussing tool grades, "I think I've gotten to my limit of the understanding of this question." * In 2013 the Astros won 55 games. They lost 8 games in extra innings and lost 29 one run games. Sam estimates if being spotted 1 run the 2013 Astros would win fewer than games. * Drew Pomeranz broke his hand punching a chair. Sam jokes that teams should use tranquilizer darts to take pitchers out of games in order to avoid having pitchers hurt themselves in anger after being taken out. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 473: Never Stop Asking Questions * Why That Stanton Homer Broke your Brain by Ben Lindbergh * Erik Kratz, and Another Thing About Catchers That We Can't Quantify Yet by Ben Lindbergh * Glen Perkins Dislikes Losing Strikes by Ben Lindbergh Category:Email Episodes Category:Episodes